Introduction:

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is an Iraqi state security service that Iran has infiltrated and uses to exert significant influence in Iraq. Iran’s influence on the PMF enables Tehran to pursue its objectives in Iraq while obfuscating its actual involvement in Iraqi internal affairs. Understanding how Iranian leaders wield direct and indirect influence over this significant component of the Iraqi security sector is crucial for the United States when considering how to deter Iranian-backed Iraqi militias from attacking U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria, but also for the broader understanding of the security dynamics in the region.

The PMF originated as part of the effort to stop and reverse the advances of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) from Syria into Iraq but have largely become a front for militias connected to Iran. Former Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, formed the PMF in June 2014 by “institutionalizing” preexisting, predominantly Shia militias that were engaged in the fight against ISIS. At the time, it was too difficult to manage these groups under the umbrella of the Iraqi Armed Forces, which is why the PMF remained a distinct entity. When ISIS captured Mosul in July 2014, it prompted the prominent Iraqi Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to issue a fatwa (a ruling) calling for Iraqi citizens “able to take up arms and fight terrorists to volunteer and join the security forces to achieve this holy purpose” against ISIS.

The intent of this paper is to examine the current organization of the PMF, assess the ambitions of their leadership, and provide a more in-depth understanding of their influence on the security dynamics in Iraq and the region.

Key Points:

• The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) has evolved into a powerful, destabilizing entity in political and security affairs in Iraq.
• The PMF’s continued growth is destabilizing because of the risk of the PMF overshadowing other Iraqi security institutions and the risk of even greater Iranian influence.
• Although Iran has suffered significant setbacks due to Israeli actions against its “Axis of Resistance,” Iran still exerts significant influence over its “PMF proxy.”

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The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.