Introduction:

Three years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan once again becomes a haven for international terrorism is fast becoming a reality. The possibility of terrorism operating again in, and from, Afghanistan, threatening the security of the U.S. and its allies and partners, should be a major global concern. Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K – an affiliate of ISIS) is strengthening itself in Afghanistan along with strong and interdependent links between Taliban, Al-Qaida, and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Of note was the presence of Al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul in 2022, who the U.S. Government killed in July of that year. The ISIS-K terrorist attacks in Kerman, Iran in January 2024 and in Moscow in April 2024 were planned in Afghanistan, further solidifying credence to the resurgence of terrorism. The departure of the U.S. forces from Afghanistan following a two-decade-long war has predictably renewed competition for influence in the country, with China, Russian, and India seeking to strengthen their relations with the ruling Taliban. The American withdrawal from the landlocked Asian nation in 2021 gave Russia an opportunity to "return" to the war-torn country, this time focusing on the diplomatic, information, and economic instruments of national power, on a journey which looks set towards recognizing the Taliban Government. In January 2023 and August 2024, China and UAE accepted the credentials of the Taliban’s newly appointed Afghan ambassador respectively. Although the step did not amount to formal recognition of the Taliban, it marks the most significant challenge to a U.S.-led consensus against normalization with the Afghan regime. Iran and India are also busy increasing their influence in the region. Moreover, with the world’s focus mainly and understandably toward the Ukraine-Russia war and Israel-Hamas conflict, security in Afghanistan remains out of the spotlight, and under the Taliban, is again becoming a hotbed of terrorism. Amid two major wars / conflicts and intensifying strategic competition with China, the U.S. is facing challenges in forging a collective international response to pressing global crises. This CSAG-paper will try to answer following questions:

1. Where does the terrorism threat level stand in the fourth year of Taliban rule?
2. What is the Taliban’s role in nurturing and monitoring various terrorist groups?
3. What are the implications of the Taliban’s posture?
4. How should Afghanistan be managed to nullify terrorism threat and bring stability in the region?

Key Points:

• Three years following the U.S. and coalition forces withdrawal, Afghanistan is a low foreign policy priority for many in the international community and is once again being sucked into a vicious whirlpool of terrorism.
• Under the Taliban, security in Afghanistan is fast deteriorating and major VEOs are finding sanctuaries and moral and material support.
• Moreover, global / regional competitors with interests in Afghanistan are also fueling the terrorism fire by use of proxies against each other.
• Under critical examination, the U.S. policy to deal with Afghanistan could be more proactive and sustainable, with focus on re-establishing its influence to stabilize the region.
• The overall objective could be to preserve hard-won gains of the past two decades, at least partially, while adapting to new realities on ground.

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Read other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers.

The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.