Introduction:

The collapse of the Assad regime marked a critical juncture in the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East, precipitating a profound transformation in the region’s strategic architecture, particularly in Lebanon. Syria has historically functioned as Lebanon’s geographic, political, economic, and military hinterland, rendering any shifts in Damascus’s political order inherently consequential for Beirut. The ascendancy of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to power in Syria has engendered a new strategic reality, compelling Lebanese actors, as well as regional and international stakeholders, to reassess their geopolitical alignments and recalibrate their strategic approaches.

In this paper, CSAG aims to analyze and explain what implications these changes in security dynamics have had on several actors important for the strategic environment in Lebanon and the broader CENTCOM AOR. By analyzing this issue on an actor level, including ethnic groups with an influence on domestic policy and the security dynamic, it is possible to get a more comprehensive view and situational awareness that is likely to have a broader strategic impact.

Key Points:

• The collapse of the Assad regime and Hezbollah’s weakening have reshaped Lebanon’s political landscape, creating opportunities for Sunni, Christian, and Druze factions to reassert influence.
• Hezbollah faces significant challenges, including disrupted supply lines, economic strain, and military encirclement, diminishing its dominance in Lebanese politics.
• Regional and international actors, including Saudi Arabia, the U.S., and Türkiye are leveraging the power vacuum to enhance their strategic presence in Lebanon.
• Lebanon’s future stability hinges on managing sectarian tensions, Syrian refugee returns, and the influence of new Syrian leadership with Salafi jihadist roots.

Read the full paper.

Read other USCENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) papers.

The opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of a number of international officers within the Combined Strategic Analysis Group (CSAG) and do not necessarily reflect the views of United States Central Command, not of the nations represented within the CSAG or any other governmental agency.